Have Faith in Facts
Monday, August 14, 2006 by simpleblob
Do you think you are a reasonable person?
Do you think logically and base your decision on facts?
I used to think I'm quite a fact-based decider, but after reading Thomas Sowell's articles, I'm not sure anymore. (By the way, Thomas Sowell is a famous economist, and also my hero.)
Studies Prove: Part I
Studies Prove: Part II
Studies Prove: Part III
The articles are mainly about the decision that is based on "studies" or "evidence", is in fact not true at all. Many government funded studies, such as Global Warming, try to provide one-sided evidences that is conformed to what people want to believe.
Sowell himself used to read one scientific study which cited 6 other studies. He somehow doubted the validity of this study, and went to check all 6 references. Shockingly, he found out that these 6 references all cited the same other study! So he went to check that particular study, and to his horror, it was a study of a very different situation from the latest study (which cited it!)
So What should we do?
It would be time-consuming, and sometime impossible for the average person to check ALL the references. In other word, most of the time we have to trust the source that it is telling the truth.
But there are other method to make the right decision. You can make a lot of decisions until you find the right one. This is sometimes the best method because it actually saved more time and effort than to analyze the decision first.
Lately, I tend to notice that I use the study-it-first method for all the decision I made. I hoard data by reading books, interviewing people, and searching the internet before carefully making a decision. The result is, I am still wrong sometime, and it was VERY time consuming.
Perhaps, it is better to fail as much as possible, than attempting to succeed at the first try!
Do you think logically and base your decision on facts?
I used to think I'm quite a fact-based decider, but after reading Thomas Sowell's articles, I'm not sure anymore. (By the way, Thomas Sowell is a famous economist, and also my hero.)
Studies Prove: Part I
Studies Prove: Part II
Studies Prove: Part III
The articles are mainly about the decision that is based on "studies" or "evidence", is in fact not true at all. Many government funded studies, such as Global Warming, try to provide one-sided evidences that is conformed to what people want to believe.
Sowell himself used to read one scientific study which cited 6 other studies. He somehow doubted the validity of this study, and went to check all 6 references. Shockingly, he found out that these 6 references all cited the same other study! So he went to check that particular study, and to his horror, it was a study of a very different situation from the latest study (which cited it!)
So What should we do?
It would be time-consuming, and sometime impossible for the average person to check ALL the references. In other word, most of the time we have to trust the source that it is telling the truth.
But there are other method to make the right decision. You can make a lot of decisions until you find the right one. This is sometimes the best method because it actually saved more time and effort than to analyze the decision first.
Lately, I tend to notice that I use the study-it-first method for all the decision I made. I hoard data by reading books, interviewing people, and searching the internet before carefully making a decision. The result is, I am still wrong sometime, and it was VERY time consuming.
Perhaps, it is better to fail as much as possible, than attempting to succeed at the first try!
Do you think you are a reasonable person?
- No
Do you think logically and base your decision on facts?
- Hmmm... maybe
The truth is I think nothing O_O
Let me read your links first and will answer your questiions very soon!